Sucseed

Irrigation/Water Accessibility

Water is an essential resource used worldwide and is a vital resource to the seed industry due to its main use in irrigation. “Economic benefits of irrigation are well documented and include increased productivity, increased economic activity and increased employment (Millner & Roskruge,2013).” Future issues regarding irrigation and water accessibility could see some major economic implications which could potentially jeopardize the sustainability of New Zealand’s seed industry before the year 2070.

 

Worst case:

In respects to water availability, the worst case scenario would be that within 55 years time, there would be little to no water available to sufficiently irrigate and produce healthy crops.

 

Best case:

The best case would be that within 55 years, an effective mitigation plan would have increased the availability of water allowing for sufficient irrigation which would intern increased crop yields and the sustainability of the seed industry

 

Water shortages are a common occurrence across the world; UN figures released in the year 2013 put the number of people living with water scarcity at 738 million (Eichelbaum, 2013). However, water shortage was not an issue that truly impacted New Zealand before the year 2013. In mid-March 2013, Wellington city council announced a water crisis. The chair of the region’s committee in charge of water supply, Nigel Wilson, stated that Wellington, the Hutt Valley and Porirua had only 20 days of water left (Anderson, 2013). The drought had a major impact on farmers with estimated losses in export earnings of over $820 million. According to Andersen (2013), Physical Geography and Earth sciences Professor James Renwick “Reports that rising global temperatures, combined with lower soil moisture, could double the risk of drought by then end of the century.” Furthermore, atmospheric Research predicted that farmers around the Wellington area will spend approximately 10 percent more time in drought each year by the middle of the century (Newland,2013). These predictions, if correct, could potentially see a major impact on the economic stability of agricultural farmers and the seed industry. The intensity of the 2013 drought perhaps overshadows underlying issues in New Zealand’s water resources which have been prevalent for far longer. An Auckland council article on droughts (2015) recognizes that there are two types of drought that currently affected New Zealand.

 

Agricultural drought:

Crops rely on moisture within soil to survive. During an Agricultural drought, soil moisture becomes so low that crops can no longer grow. A prolonged drought will cause crops to die and will only end when there is an adequate amount of rain to restore soil moisture levels.

 

Hydrological drought:

Significant reduction in the water levels of rivers, lakes and groundwater. Occurs when rainfall is below expected levels for an extended period of time.

 

The potential effects of droughts on New Zealand’s agricultural industry range from agricultural productivity being reduced, to significant economic losses as well as an increase in the risk of fires resulting in the loss of crops. There is also a potential for increased insect infestations, plant diseases, and soil erosion. Droughts result in higher evaporation rates which translate to reduced river flow and aquifer levels as well as greater irrigation demand. New zealand’s other fresh water recourses which include lakes, dams and reservoirs would also be affected causing significant loss in water levels (Scarsbrook & Pearson, 2013). Droughts will only become more severe in the future as climate change increases evaporation rates and changes weather patterns. “A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture (about 8% more for every 1°C increase in temperature), so the potential for heavier rainfall certainly exists.(Wratt & Mullan, 2013)” These changes in extreme rainfall will not be geographically uniform meaning the potential for rain to fall where is water is in demand for agricultural use  e.g. Canterbury is unlikely. Heavier rainfall may seem a blessing for farmers but currently only 5% of New Zealand’s total rainfall is abstracted for commercial use (mainly farming), and rising temperatures that create a warmer atmosphere will only lead to more severe and frequent droughts. Severe droughts are projected to occur at least twice as often by the year 2080 (Wratt & Mullan, 2013). As soil moisture conditions become drier than desirable, irrigation can be instrumental in maintaining crop yields. However, this will become increasingly difficult as water sources run dry and the accessibility of water becomes increasingly difficult.

 

Additionally, New Zealand has become thirstier for water, with weekly allocation of water increasing by a third in the space of 10 years. By 2010, activities such as irrigation had been allocated nearly twice as much water as they had been the decade before (Morton, 2015).

 

This Presents doubts about the efficiency of irrigational systems used by agricultural farmers to water crops. Morton (2015), highlights the fact that between 1999 and 2010, the largest increase in water allocation was in Canterbury with a growth of 98.2 million cubic metres a week. Since the main water usage in Canterbury is on irrigation, this exemplifies the agricultural reliance on water to produce yields that support an increasing demand. Currently there is limited provision for the voluntary transfer of surplus allocated water (sbc, 2008). This will  constrain New Zealand’s economic development as well as constraining growth in urban and main agricultural areas. New Zealand’s growing demand for water resources is being driven by:

 

• More intensive irrigation and land use, particularly in agricultural areas.
   

• Growing population, which drives demand for municipal supplies for human and industrial use.

 

Improvements in water allocation and management could see some major economical and environmental gains (sbc, 2008). New Zealand’s increasing drought probability and demand for water resources poses a major threat to the seed industry's ability to sustainability thrive in the next 55 years. lower water accessibility and severe drought will create a situation where farmers do not have access to enough water to sufficiently water crops through the drought meaning crops could die and farmers will not be able to keep up with consumer demand. As a result of this, the seed industry's economical situation will worsen and so to will their ability to continually thrive in the year 2070. The scale of New Zealand’s growing demand for water resources can be seen in the figure below which highlights the significant growth in the allocation of surface water over a 5 year period. (2007 to 2012)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 1: surface water allocation in New Zealand regions (sbc, 2008).

 

On the other hand, Environmental Minister Nick Smith says there is still enough water to go around; and room to use more. According to Morton (2015), Andrew Curtis, chief executive of the lobby group irrigation New Zealand, exclaims that “The issue in New Zealand has never been water- there is plenty of water there, particularly if you store it - the challenge is more how the water is used and how we minimize the footprints of intensive agriculture.” If this is the  case, the problem has nothing to do with the resources themselves but has more to do with the government's ability to efficiently extract, store, and allocate fresh water it in the time of drought. This is exemplified by the fact that New Zealand was ranked fourth out of 30 OECD countries for the size of renewable freshwater resources (Morton, 2015). It seems then that the reason for water restrictions in times of drought is due to the government's inability to correctly allocate water resources to each region. The figure below represents the allocation of water resources for agricultural use in New Zealand between 2011 to 2012.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 2: Consumptive annual regional water allocation for use in irrigation. Note the top part of the figure represents all the regions in the bottom part of the figure (Collins, woods, Rouse, Duncan, Snelder, Cowie, 2012 ).  

 

Irrigational issues for agricultural farmers may arise from not only water accessibility but the irrigational systems themselves. Earlier irrigation methods used wild flooding, where the water was diverted to flood paddocks. Irrigation methods then developed to flooding channels that cut through paddocks. These methods were low cost but were not effective methods as they were labor intensive and the use of water was very inefficient (Heiler, 2012). Methods of irrigation soon after progressed into sprinkler irrigation methods that are in place today. This method reduced labor input, increased water efficiency and allowed more land to be irrigated. As a result, crop and pasture yields increased but there came a downside which was that sprinkler systems required more energy to pump the groundwater used in the irrigation of crops (Heiler, 2012). This modern method of irrigation may be water efficient but ends up costly as a lot of energy is expended in the process of pumping water. Cost involved will only increase as the increased probability of droughts cause crops to require greater amounts of irrigation. ultimately, this could see an impact on the economic stability of agricultural farmers and the seed industry.

 

Conclusion

In conclusion, the research conducted above brings me to the believe that future issues faced by the seed industry regarding irrigation and availability of water are highly certain and will leave a lasting negative impact on the sustainability of the seed industry before the year 2070. The issue in question may not be entirely based around the amount of freshwater resources available but has more to do with the ability of the government to efficiently extract, store and allocated fresh water for irrigation in times of demand. These predictions are backed up by sources highlighted above which are reliable and include inputs from specialists within the field.

 

Without a mitigation plan capable of creating an ample supply of water for irrigation, free of environmental factors, New Zealand may once again face the trepidation of water supplies running low. If things continue the way they are going, agricultural farmers will suffer as low water availability makes it near impossible to sufficiently irrigate crops through harsh droughts that are predicted to become more frequent in the future. This will leave crop quality and yields low and potentially result in loss of crops through increased fire hazards. New Zealand’s seed industry will intern suffer dearly as lack of quality and quantity would impact exports. This would greatly impact the industry's economic stability and exports could potentially be crippled as increased drought brings more pests as well as diseases that could prevent exportation of produce. Ultimately, without a feasible solution,  New Zealand’s seed industry would not be able to be continually grow, thrive, or be sustainable by the year 2070.

 

References

Anderson, I. (2015). Wellington water crisis: Drought risk driven by capitalism | Scoop News. [online] Scoop.co.nz. Available at: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1303/S00148/wellington-water-crisis-drought-risk-driven-by-capitalism.htm [Accessed 2 Sep. 2015].

 

Aucklandcouncil.govt.nz, (2015). Drought. [online] Available at: http://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/EN/environmentwaste/naturalhazardsemergencies/hazards/Pages/droughtinauckland.aspx [Accessed 1 Sep. 2015].

 

Collins, D., Woods, R., Rouse, H., Duncan, M., Snelder, T. and Cowie, B. (2015). Water Resources. 1st ed. [ebook] Auckland: Niwa, pp.354, 359, 382. Available at: https://www.mpi.govt.nz/document-vault/4073. [Accessed 1 Sep. 2015].

 

Eichelbaum, K. (2015). New Zealand's Water Crisis. [online] eureka. Available at: http://eureka.org.nz/uploaded/file/downloads//Eichelbaum_Katherine_New%20Zealand%27s%20Water%20Crisis%20-%20Taken%20With%20A%20Pinch%20Of%20Salt.pdf [Accessed 2 Sep. 2015].

 

Heiler, T. (2015). 6. – Irrigation and drainage – Te Ara Encyclopedia of New Zealand. [online] Teara.govt.nz. Available at: http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/irrigation-and-drainage/page-6 [Accessed 1 Sep. 2015].

 

Millner, J. and Roskruge, N. (2015). The New Zealand Arable Industry. 1st ed. [ebook] Palmerston North: Massey University, pp.109,110. Available at: http://www.landcareresearch.co.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/77036/1_8_Millner.pdf [Accessed 2 Sep. 2015].

 

Morton, J. (2015). New Zealand's growing thirst for water - National - NZ Herald News. [online] The New Zealand Herald. Available at: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11474279 [Accessed 1 Sep. 2015].

 

Perry, N. (2015). New Zealand parched as worst drought in 30 years takes toll. [online] NBC News. Available at: http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/15/17326669-new-zealand-parched-as-worst-drought-in-30-years-takes-toll?lite [Accessed 2 Sep. 2015].

 

sbc, (2015). A best use solution for New Zealand's water problems. [online] Available at: http://www.sbc.org.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/56547/A-Best-Use-Solution-for-NZs-Water-Problems.pdf [Accessed 2 Sep. 2015].

 

Scarsbrook, M. (2015). Water resources – Te Ara Encyclopedia of New Zealand. [online] Teara.govt.nz. Available at: http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/water-resources [Accessed 1 Sep. 2015].

 

Wratt, D. and Mullan, B. (2015). Climate change scenarios for New Zealand | NIWA. [online] Niwa.co.nz. Available at: https://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/information-and-resources/clivar/scenarios [Accessed 1 Sep. 2015].

 

Darryn Wells